Saturday, January 4, 2020

Leadership in our Hot New World


It is so important, first, to grieve those lost to these deadly fires and especially those lost in service to protecting others from their wrath; to reflect on the immense toll on animal life and endangered species, and to offer solidarity with those whose lives have been upended as homes, businesses, farms, towns and communities burn across Australia.

We must offer our deepest thanks to those working in emergency services to protect life.

And we must also acknowledge that it is a crisis still unfolding, with rain still weeks off at best; that perhaps we have not yet seen the worst of it. We must prepare mentally for the grinding exhaustion of this long-running disaster, before we can even begin to look to supporting the recovery of our scorched communities.

Yet we must stare clear-eyed at the task in front of us.

The deep decarbonisation of our nation within the next decade is non-negotiable – Australia is too big an economy, emitter and supplier of fossil fuels for the global emissions reduction efforts to succeed without us. And as the hottest, driest continent on the planet, we are among the most exposed to the effects of a changing climate, all to clearly illuminated in the fire light.

The physics task is what it is – to stabilize, and ultimately draw down greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere will be harder than it would have been had we moved when we knew; although likely easier than it might still prove to be if we delay. All said though, it is the task before us and it is no use pretending otherwise: 70-80% global decarbonisation by 2030, global net zero emissions no later than 2050 and net negative emissions down the back straight of the century.

That we will have a recalcitrant federal government for at least the first third of the decade is a given, and possibly there is a another lost ‘climate election’ still to come. Whatever we achieve, it will be largely achieved with the federal power structures that exist today.

The technology we have is probably up to the task – whether in energy, transportation or agriculture; enough certainly to make substantive progress as we progress the R&D task in industry and waste management. We do not fail for lack of technological options.

We are amongst the wealthiest nations in the world per capita, with the capacity to raise capital at historically low rates. Across our economy, we do not lack for the financial resources to effect major and rapid change. Our failure cannot be put at the door of poverty.

And yet, we remain stuck through the historical power of one sector – fossil fuel extraction – and a culture war waged through media and conservative politics that has found in climate inaction a tribal rallying point that has helped deliver political power.

In policy and advocacy terms, our task is to use whatever means we have at our disposal to establish a political and investment environment that holds us to a steep trajectory – keeping carbon in the ground, modernising the energy and transportation systems, ruggedizing our built environment, supporting the resilience of our communities and re-thinking how we produce food. Those very things that so enrage the ideological and commercial opponents to action, opponents that have so skilfully used their power to control the narrative to their benefit for 30 years.

Which brings me, at last, to the point of this post: understanding, and deploying power.

For if we are to deliver the task this decade, it will be through our ability to focus the power we have, to harness the latent power within those with the most to lose from a changing climate and to focus it on those policy-makers and investors who hold the keys to ambitious action.

We must understand that while there is clearly one sector that will gain through thwarting effective climate action – the fossil fuel sector and those who enjoy its patronage; virtually every other sector of the economy and society at large stands to lose a great deal.

Our tourism sector, predicted to lose hundreds of millions through this event itself; the financial services and insurance industry aligned with the property industry with billions of dollars of built assets at risk; our education sector, so reliant on foreign students and the perception of Australia as a place of global leadership; our agriculture sector shaped by declining productivity through drought events and long-term changing rainfall patterns.

So much of what makes the lucky country lucky is on the line.

And also so much promised: an emerging technology sector supporting our future jobs, where the global quest to attract talent and investment hinges upon delivering the lifestyle and values alignment of the emerging millennial global labour market – the antithesis of our smoky cities and global pariah status at the COPs.

While the fossil fuel industry is large and has tentacles of influence through Australia’s public and private institutions, it does not have a monopoly on special interests; indeed, not even a majority.
The rest of the community are doing what they can - our scientists are doing the good research and have warned for decades, our communities have been out in the streets and some of our business leaders have been right out in front, supporting new renewable energy projects of scale. But these have all been constrained to positions of demonstration or intellectual influence – they have not come from a position of power and have proven ineffectual in countering the well-funded efforts of the coal and gas giants.

I say to our community leaders – keep fighting, keep demonstrating and keep the story alive that we can, and must, move fast. Build the political pressure in the lead-up to our next election that we do not miss the opportunity. But also recognise that it is not enough – this task cannot be completed by the true believers alone.

What we have lacked is the wholesale mobilisation of business’s lobby effort on behalf of climate – a centre of real power in how we conduct our society in 2020.  

At best, token; for the most part, silent; and at worst, complicit; that the Business Council of Australia welcomed the removal of the carbon tax in 2013 will stand as one of the most short-sighted notices of a short-sighted decade. And yet within the Australian business community, there exists the power in relation to this government to coerce it to change course.

Australia is perhaps the developed nation most economically exposed to climate change. It’s not just a case of our property industry with assets at risk in the late century or our agriculture sector grappling with drought. The inherent economic risks of climate change have been identified by our major financial institutions – APRA and the RBA. But the full power of our businesses has remained sitting on the fence.

There are perhaps 30-40 CEOs with the power to train their sights on meaningful policy change and with direct leverage over the fossil fuel industry; five financial services CEOs able to slow lending and investment, fifteen professional services CEOs in audit, engineering and law able to withdraw services, five property development CEOs able to bring the power of Property Council of Australia to bear and ten to twenty vice chancellors able to influence our entire knowledge sector.

Many would like to think of themselves as leaders. Well, if this emergency is not a catalyst to show your leadership, then nothing will. This fire emergency is a tipping point for our society in Australia. Those who have stood against climate action now stand on the side of fire, destruction and broken communities.

If you enjoy the fruits of fossil fuel profits, you are complicit in these fires that so ravage our communities.

If you cannot see that while profitable today, any involvement with the extraction of fossil fuels puts your future business at risk; puts all business at risk, you are wilfully blind.

And if you are a business leader in Australia, and you do not throw the weight of your organisation in direct opposition to the fossil fuel sector and its obstruction of climate policy, you are a coward.

However, if you seize this moment, recognise the influence and power that you hold and choose to lead – tangibly, practically and with effect; then history beckons.