It is so
important, first, to grieve those lost to these deadly fires and especially
those lost in service to protecting others from their wrath; to reflect on the
immense toll on animal life and endangered species, and to offer solidarity
with those whose lives have been upended as homes, businesses, farms, towns and
communities burn across Australia.
We must
offer our deepest thanks to those working in emergency services to protect life.
And we must
also acknowledge that it is a crisis still unfolding, with rain still weeks off
at best; that perhaps we have not yet seen the worst of it. We must prepare mentally
for the grinding exhaustion of this long-running disaster, before we can even
begin to look to supporting the recovery of our scorched communities.
Yet we must
stare clear-eyed at the task in front of us.
The deep
decarbonisation of our nation within the next decade is non-negotiable –
Australia is too big an economy, emitter and supplier of fossil fuels for the global
emissions reduction efforts to succeed without us. And as the hottest, driest continent
on the planet, we are among the most exposed to the effects of a changing climate,
all to clearly illuminated in the fire light.
The physics
task is what it is – to stabilize, and ultimately draw down greenhouse gasses
in the atmosphere will be harder than it would have been had we moved when we
knew; although likely easier than it might still prove to be if we delay. All
said though, it is the task before us and it is no use pretending otherwise: 70-80%
global decarbonisation by 2030, global net zero emissions no later than 2050
and net negative emissions down the back straight of the century.
That we
will have a recalcitrant federal government for at least the first third of the
decade is a given, and possibly there is a another lost ‘climate election’
still to come. Whatever we achieve, it will be largely achieved with the
federal power structures that exist today.
The
technology we have is probably up to the task – whether in energy,
transportation or agriculture; enough certainly to make substantive progress as
we progress the R&D task in industry and waste management. We do not fail
for lack of technological options.
We are
amongst the wealthiest nations in the world per capita, with the capacity to raise
capital at historically low rates. Across our economy, we do not lack for the financial
resources to effect major and rapid change. Our failure cannot be put at the
door of poverty.
And yet, we
remain stuck through the historical power of one sector – fossil fuel
extraction – and a culture war waged through media and conservative politics
that has found in climate inaction a tribal rallying point that has helped
deliver political power.
In policy
and advocacy terms, our task is to use whatever means we have at our disposal to
establish a political and investment environment that holds us to a steep
trajectory – keeping carbon in the ground, modernising the energy and transportation
systems, ruggedizing our built environment, supporting the resilience of our communities
and re-thinking how we produce food. Those very things that so enrage the ideological
and commercial opponents to action, opponents that have so skilfully used their
power to control the narrative to their benefit for 30 years.
Which
brings me, at last, to the point of this post: understanding, and deploying
power.
For if we
are to deliver the task this decade, it will be through our ability to focus
the power we have, to harness the latent power within those with the most to
lose from a changing climate and to focus it on those policy-makers and
investors who hold the keys to ambitious action.
We must understand
that while there is clearly one sector that will gain through thwarting effective
climate action – the fossil fuel sector and those who enjoy its patronage;
virtually every other sector of the economy and society at large stands to lose
a great deal.
Our tourism
sector, predicted to lose hundreds of millions through this event itself; the financial
services and insurance industry aligned with the property industry with
billions of dollars of built assets at risk; our education sector, so reliant
on foreign students and the perception of Australia as a place of global
leadership; our agriculture sector shaped by declining productivity through
drought events and long-term changing rainfall patterns.
So much of
what makes the lucky country lucky is on the line.
And also so
much promised: an emerging technology sector supporting our future jobs, where
the global quest to attract talent and investment hinges upon delivering the
lifestyle and values alignment of the emerging millennial global labour market –
the antithesis of our smoky cities and global pariah status at the COPs.
While the
fossil fuel industry is large and has tentacles of influence through Australia’s
public and private institutions, it does not have a monopoly on special interests;
indeed, not even a majority.
The rest of
the community are doing what they can - our scientists are doing the good research
and have warned for decades, our communities have been out in the streets and
some of our business leaders have been right out in front, supporting new
renewable energy projects of scale. But these have all been constrained to
positions of demonstration or intellectual influence – they have not come from
a position of power and have proven ineffectual in countering the well-funded
efforts of the coal and gas giants.
I say to
our community leaders – keep fighting, keep demonstrating and keep the story
alive that we can, and must, move fast. Build the political pressure in the
lead-up to our next election that we do not miss the opportunity. But also
recognise that it is not enough – this task cannot be completed by the true
believers alone.
What we
have lacked is the wholesale mobilisation of business’s lobby effort on behalf
of climate – a centre of real power in how we conduct our society in 2020.
At best, token;
for the most part, silent; and at worst, complicit; that the Business Council
of Australia welcomed the removal of the carbon tax in 2013 will stand as one
of the most short-sighted notices of a short-sighted decade. And yet within the
Australian business community, there exists the power in relation to this
government to coerce it to change course.
Australia
is perhaps the developed nation most economically exposed to climate change. It’s
not just a case of our property industry with assets at risk in the late
century or our agriculture sector grappling with drought. The inherent economic
risks of climate change have been identified by our major financial institutions
– APRA and the RBA. But the full power of our businesses has remained sitting on
the fence.
There are perhaps
30-40 CEOs with the power to train their sights on meaningful policy change and
with direct leverage over the fossil fuel industry; five financial services
CEOs able to slow lending and investment, fifteen professional services CEOs in
audit, engineering and law able to withdraw services, five property development
CEOs able to bring the power of Property Council of Australia to bear and ten
to twenty vice chancellors able to influence our entire knowledge sector.
Many would like
to think of themselves as leaders. Well, if this emergency is not a catalyst to
show your leadership, then nothing will. This fire emergency is a tipping point
for our society in Australia. Those who have stood against climate action now
stand on the side of fire, destruction and broken
communities.
If you
enjoy the fruits of fossil fuel profits, you are complicit in these fires that
so ravage our communities.
If you
cannot see that while profitable today, any involvement with the extraction of
fossil fuels puts your future business at risk; puts all business at risk, you
are wilfully blind.
And if you
are a business leader in Australia, and you do not throw the weight of your
organisation in direct opposition to the fossil fuel sector and its obstruction
of climate policy, you are a coward.
However, if
you seize this moment, recognise the influence and power that you hold and
choose to lead – tangibly, practically and with effect; then history beckons.